nigeria-maternal-risk-oracle

🇳🇬 Nigeria Maternal Risk Oracle

ZerveHack 2026 Submission | $10,000 Prize Competition

The Question

52% of Nigerian women complete antenatal care. Only 43% deliver in a health facility. Who is most at risk — and what should policymakers do first?

Live Demo

🔗 Interactive App: https://ng-risk-oracle.hub.zerve.cloud

🔗 Zerve Project: https://app.zerve.ai/notebook/b475b4be-9670-4974-b6d9-45b372cbdbf5

The ANC Paradox

Nigerian women attend checkups faithfully — then go home to deliver alone. This structural dropout between antenatal care and facility delivery is the hidden driver of Nigeria’s maternal mortality crisis.

This oracle quantifies that gap and predicts risk in real time.

Key Findings (2000–2021)

Finding	Value
ANC-to-Facility Gap (2000)	14.8 percentage points
ANC-to-Facility Gap (2021)	7.0 percentage points
MMR Improvement	45% decline (1,210 → 659 per 100k)
Health Expenditure vs MMR	r = −0.78 (strong correlation)
Top Policy Lever	Skilled birth attendance +10pp

How It Works

Input any population’s health indicators → get instant:

• ✅ Risk classification (AT RISK / SAFE)
• ✅ ANC-to-facility gap measurement
• ✅ Top contributing risk factor
• ✅ Prioritised policy recommendation

Data Sources

Source	Institution	Coverage
Maternal & Reproductive Health Indicators	WHO / HDX	2000–2021
Health Financing Database	WHO / HDX	2000–2023
Maternal Mortality Survey	DHS Nigeria	2008–2018

Try It Live

Visit the app and move the sliders to simulate different health system scenarios:

🔗 https://ng-risk-oracle.hub.zerve.cloud

Tech Stack

• Analysis: Python, Pandas, NumPy, Scikit-learn
• Platform: Zerve AI (autonomous reasoning + deployment)
• App: Streamlit
• Data: WHO HDX, DHS Program

Author

Built for ZerveHack 2026 — Zerve AI Hackathon Deadline: 29 April 2026 Prize Pool: $10,000